ACP - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial driver of fire weather in Australia, with the correlation between ENSO and Australian fire weather having intensified over the past 2 decades. However, the underlying causes for this change have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we utilize reanalysis datasets and numerical model simulations to demonstrate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could potentially modulate the ENSO–Australian fire weather relationship. The correlation between ENSO and the Australian Fire Weather Index (FWI) increases from 0.17 to 0.70 as the AMO transitions from its negative to positive phase. This strengthening effect can be attributed to atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms. Specifically, the positive AMO phase, characterized by warming in the northern and tropical Atlantic, generates Rossby wave trains, leading to high-pressure systems over Australia. Consequently, local temperature and wind speed increase, while precipitation decreases. This signal, superimposed on ENSO, serves to amplify the ENSO effect on Australian fire weather.

ACP - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

ACP - Relations - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

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ACP - Relations - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

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ACP - Relations - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

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ACP - Relations - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

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ACP - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

Variability and long‐term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review - Heidemann - 2023 - WIREs Climate Change - Wiley Online Library

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates ENSO Atmospheric Anomaly Amplitude in the Tropical Pacific in: Journal of Climate Volume 35 Issue 12 (2022)

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